Early Warning Bulletins
National monthly drought updates - January 2022
The month of December marked the cessation of the October to December (OND) seasonal rainfall. According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for January 2022 indicates that; a few parts of the country will experience occasional rainfall during the first and second weeks of January and remain generally sunny and dry towards the end of the month. These include a few areas in; Southern Rift Valley (Narok), South-eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, and Taita Taveta), and parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Meru and Embu).
The vegetation condition index in most of the ASAL counties was either severe or extreme deficit. The month of December 2021 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of November 2021. This is attributed to the late-onset and poor performance of rainfall in the month of November. Further, the pasture and browse conditions are on a worsening trend.
2021 short rains mid-season food security assessment report
Food insecurity in Kenya has deteriorated since August with the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance increasing from 2.1 million in August 2021 to 2.8 million in December 2021 as a result of the below-average October to December short rains. The situation is expected to worsen over the coming months and interventions will be required, particularly in key sectors: agriculture/livestock, water, health and nutrition, and food assistance.
The 2021 drought spell also led to livestock mortality in at least 15 counties with an estimated livestock loss of 1,437,632. The most affected counties are Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, and Wajir with a cumulative loss of over 500,000 cattle even as browse and forage conditions continue to deteriorate due to depressed short rains in the ASALs and are expected to last about two months.
Maize production is expected to be up to 70 percent lower in marginal agricultural areas while the area planted to crops across Kenya is estimated to be 50 – 65 percent below normal.
The rapid food and nutrition mid-season assessment was conducted from 28th November to 4th December 2021.
2021 Short rains mid-season assessment - main report
2021 LRA food and nutrition security assessment report
The deterioration in the food security situation has resulted in an estimated 2.1 million people facing acute food insecurity and in urgent need of humanitarian assistance in the next six months. Compared to the short rains’ assessment, this is an increase from 1.4 million found to be acutely food insecure. The deterioration is attributed to the dismal performance of the March-May Long rains season compounded by the effects of Covid 19 and the poor performance of the previous short rains season. It is projected that the situation will worsen further and affect 2.4 million people during the October – December Short rains season forecasted to be below normal.
NDMA distributes livestock feed supplements to save pastoralists’ livelihoods
Ms. Batula Mohamed, a resident of Karu Location in Habaswein, Wajir County, was on the verge of despair as she watched the body condition of her cattle deteriorate. Drought had depleted all available pasture, wreaking havoc in her village. The mother of five had already lost four cows in a span of two months and the remaining three were too feeble to stand on their own. The Subcounty had not received any rainfall in five months thus the depletion of pasture. Her three school-going children had missed most of previous term’s work as the situation required them to venture farther out with the livestock in search of pasture.
NDMA partners with academia for drought risk management research
The NDMA has partnered with local universities for research into areas relating to drought risk management and climate change adaptation. The Authority gave research grants to six PhD students drawn from the University of Nairobi, University of Eldoret and Kenyatta University.
In his opening remarks during a seminar for the presentation of research findings, NDMA Board Chairman Mr Raphael Nzomo noted that the event came at a critical time when the country is looking for practical solutions to challenges posed by droughts.
Staff Mail